The provocative emergence of prediction markets

Prediction markets are rapidly evolving from a niche concept into a mechanism for price discovery, risk transfer, and capital allocation. As institutional participation grows and new use cases emerge – from elections and economic indicators to AI computing and commercial risk – their relevance to mainstream financial markets is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

This session explores whether prediction markets represent a genuinely new asset class, the next evolution of market infrastructure, or both. We will discuss their role alongside traditional derivatives and insurance markets, implications for exchanges, clearing houses, custodians, and regulators, and whether market implied probabilities could become trusted reference benchmarks for pricing, hedging, and investment decisions across the wider economy.